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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.